The winner of World TopInvestor Competition 2007-08, Haochen Hu, has outperformed the world's leading hedge funds with gains of almost 785% over the competition period. The competition is a live, real money, capital markets trading competition lasting for a full year. The prize for the top investor is the management of a fund with an investment value of USD 250,000 sponsored by Saxo Bank...
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The winner of World TopInvestor Competition 2007-08, Haochen Hu, has outperformed the world’s leading hedge funds with gains of almost 785% over the competition period. The competition is a live, real money, capital markets trading competition lasting for a full year. The prize for the top investor is the management of a fund with an investment value of USD 250,000 sponsored by Saxo Bank, a global leader in online trading and investment services.
The winner of the 2007-08 competition was Haochen Hu, who led a strong field including Guo Hanqui with a net gain of 630%, Julian Szkirpan from the United States with 555% as well as Hungarian investors György Doleschall with a 315% gain and Tamás Czajner with 135%.
"Losing money is bad, but it is much worse when you don't know why you lost. I have traded online for eight years and you must study and be familiar with the product you want to invest in. My strategy was simple. I focused on currency trading and used the higher leverage when I felt the chance was there," commented Hu.
Surprised with the end result himself, Hu’s near 785% gain is extraordinary. According to Hedge Fund Research Inc. indices, a series of benchmarks designed to reflect hedge fund industry performance by constructing equally weighted composites of constituent funds, the weighted index was up 10.02% in 2007. Research from Morningstar, a leading provider of independent investment research, indicates the average return was 12.5%.
"The World TopInvestor competition is a way to build recognition of your skills. You compete against traders from all over the world, trading on the same platform while using any and all of the instruments available. This year’s participants were world league investors, able to make a profit in a falling market, and easily beating professional traders," said Paulo Pinto promoter of WTI.
Paulo Pinto emphasises the winners had a thorough understanding of how the market works and great talent to trade in an increasingly volatile market.
"One of the biggest changes throughout 2007 was the increase in volatility and consequently a widening of ranges. To benefit from that, you need skills in trading Forex, Commodities, CFDs and Futures. This year’s winners had those skills," commented Paulo Pinto.
Next year’s World TopInvestor Competition is open to all entrants willing to open an account with any Broker sponsor. Among this year’s sponsors of the World TopInvestor competition were several leading online investment banks and brokers from all over the world including: Saxo Bank, Dif Broker, Commodity Broking Services, BenchMark Finance, Cambsite, Finexo, Buda-Cash Brókerház, TMS Brokers, Banco Best, Poteza BPD, and RCG FX Trader.
Yesterday was the last day of the World Top Investor competition. The full year competition saw Hu Haochen winning with gains of 785% trading the forex markets. Amazing performance considering that the last 12 months...
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Yesterday was the last trade day of the World Top Investor competition 2007-08. The full year competition saw Hu Haochen winning with gains of 785% trading the forex markets.
Amazing performance considering that the last 12 months, saw first, a steady growth and in the last 3 months levels of volatility not seen since 2001. It was a full 12 months with good news, not so good news and bad news, with crisis, with trends and even the nationalization of a bank in the UK.
The idea behind the Efficient Market Hypothesis is that in general, investors cannot beat the market in the long run. The top 10 in the World Top Investor proved it can be done and the competition proved the EMH is an academic nonsense.
As investors we all know that there is nothing worst for a trader than getting whipped around in circles during a volatile market. Volatility hit record highs in January, and still our TOP 10 competitors performed although some endured losses larger than average.
Hu Haochen had a steady growth of his portfolio during the all 12 months of the competition, proving that there is 4 main components that contribute to profits:
1. The size of your average win
2. The size of your average loss
3. The win rate of your system
4. The capital allocated to each position.
Hu Haochen is going to be the World Top Investor for at least the next twelve months. In the meantime a star has risen in the portfolio management industry.
What a difference a week makes. Across the board we had declines giving back much of prior week's gains. The market malaise in the US spread to Europe and Asia. The economic stimulus package passed the Senate, and although it reach a total of 168 billion the market...
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What a difference a week makes. Across the board we had declines giving back much of prior week's gains. The market malaise in the US spread to Europe and Asia. The economic stimulus package passed the Senate, and although it reach a total of 168 billion the market was not impressed, being more concerned with Bond Insurers. In that area MBIA hopes to raise 1 billion in an offer of stock. The insurer is desperate to maintain its AAA rating.
The dollar benefited from the fact that the ECB did not change interest rates and rally until 1.45. Oil since fallen from its peak of 100 has found support at 90. Talk of recession means that oil demand will probably fall.
Libor rate (the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans) has gone down giving a bit of hope that major banks are not anymore desperate for cash. Gold however is still near the highs of 940.
We are moving into the last week of the competition and Hu Haochen retains the lead with gains of 730%. In second place Hanqui Guo with 614% followed in third place by the American Julian.
The rebound for the Dow these past two weeks was 9.7% but the Dow is still down 3.9% year to date. The FED cut another 50 basis points giving to the markets demands. The SP gained 4.87% for the week and the Nasdaq 3.75%, but the strongest gains...
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The rebound for the Dow these past two weeks was 9.7% but the Dow is still down 3.9% year to date. The FED cut another 50 basis points giving to the markets demands. The SP gained 4.87% for the week and the Nasdaq 3.75%, but the strongest gains came from the Russel 2000 with 6%. The markets have been FED induced as we saw, and Gold went back to record highs at 940 usd an ounce, telling the markets that it is becoming the safe haven from currency risks, and playing the inverse relationship to the dollar.
In a not so surprised move Microsoft launched a 45 billion hostile takeover bid for Yahoo. Anyone short Yahoo would have lost 50% overnight. Hu Haochen is for the fourth week in a row the leader of the WTI with gains of 693%. Mr. Hu Haochen is from Hong Kong although he is competing on the Danish League. Hanqui Guo in second place is from Australia but also competing in the Danish League.
It was a week to be remembered, as the volatility was mind-blowing. Although a holiday in the US the futures index in globex made limit down. Tuesday saw the FED cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.5% and the markets recovered almost all the losses...
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It was a week to be remembered, as the volatility was mind-blowing. Although a holiday in the US the futures index in globex made limit down. Tuesday saw the FED cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3.5% and the markets recovered almost all the losses. From fear to greed the market left investors in disarray. The World Top Investor is now 3 weeks to the end and participants like all investors are confused but hoping for the best. How to be sure that global markets are done with widespread selling? This week the FED will meet again and will probably make another dramatic rate cut. Can this prevent recession or is it the culmination of a super boom that has lasted for more than 60 years as George Soros said to Financial Times. Gold made an all time high and is now confortable above 900 usd.
Hu Haochen is leading the WTI for the third week in a row followed by fellow compatriote Hanqui Guo.
Some say the market has become fundamentally cheap, but the truth is technicals are very weak with investors increasingly nervous as portfolio values decline. The US stock market has had the worst start in over 100 years. The SP is down 9.7% in just 3 weeks and the biggest weekly loss in five years...
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Some say the market has become fundamentally cheap, but the truth is technicals are very weak with investors increasingly nervous as portfolio values decline. The US stock market has had the worst start in over 100 years. The SP is down 9.7% in just 3 weeks and the biggest weekly loss in five years, and the Nasdaq has lost 11.8% since the beginning of the year. Stocks are getting hammered around the world, so it would not be a surprise to see snap-back rallies in the coming weeks. The yield on the 2-year note is now at 2.39% almost 2% below Fed funds while the yield on the 30 year is at 4.40%. This is truly a symptom of flight to quality.
The World Top Investor is entering the last 3 weeks of the 12 months competition. Hu Haochen is strongly in the lead with gains of 696% far ahead of Mr. Doleschall now with gains of 564% and followed by Hanqui Guo with 562%.
Earnings season officially kicked off last week with Alcoa's earnings. Companies in various sectors came out with guidance but the market declined for the third week in a row. For the week the Dow declined 1.5% de SP 0.75% and Nasdaq 2.6%...
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Earnings season officially kicked off last week with Alcoa's earnings. Companies in various sectors came out with guidance but the market declined for the third week in a row. For the week the Dow declined 1.5% de SP 0.75% and Nasdaq 2.6%. Since the beginning of the year the Nasdaq already lost 8% the same as the Russel 2000. So while losses were widespread, the biggest losers were tech stocks and small caps.
Bernanke said "the FED stand ready to take substantive additional action to support growth" and the result is gold at 900 usd and the euro near all time highs. Wall Street is now expecting a 50 bps rate cut on January 30. The pound continues falling since November is a dramatic 16 cents.
We enter now the last month of the WTI competition and HU Haochen is in the lead for the second week now with gains of 695% followed by Mr. Doleschall with 593%.
It was the first week of the new year, but a week to remember since we made market history. As the dollar weakened against the euro and the yen, gold hit a historic high of 871 usd an ounce, decimating the high of 850 set back in 1980, and oil broke through the 100 usd a barrel mark...
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It was the first week of the new year, but a week to remember since we made market history. As the dollar weakened against the euro and the yen, gold hit a historic high of 871 usd an ounce, decimating the high of 850 set back in 1980, and oil broke through the 100 usd a barrel mark.
The Dow reacted to this increasingly bad news dropping almost 5% during the week and setting the new first trading day point drop in the history of the index. Traders and economists are now watching if we are headed for a recession.
This first week of 2008 saw also a major change at the top of the World TopInvestor. Mr. Doleschall who was in the lead since July 27th 2007 lost his first place the first session of the year and is now second after Danish Hu Haochen.
In case you missed the news this past week, the Fed cut rates both the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate by quarter points. But apparently investors were expecting a little more and disappointed traders helped the Dow plummet 300 points in Tuesday session...
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In case you missed the news this past week, the Fed cut rates both the Fed Funds rate and the Discount rate by quarter points. But apparently investors were expecting a little more and disappointed traders helped the Dow plummet 300 points in Tuesday session.
The FED then announced on Wednesday an auction of 40 billion of liquidity to the neediest banks. The fact is lower rates and all this liquidity has not helped financial stocks. On the other hand it helped inflation, PPI reading for November rose 3.2% the biggest rise since 1973. Not surprisingly Greenspan said there is nothing Bernake can do to avoid recession. The dollar furthered its recent recovery against the euro the yen and the pound. In tune with the recovery of the dollar, gold prices retreated.
Mr Doleschall lost a few percents from his gains but is still comfortably in the lead.
The Japanese yen was rising showing that traders are dropping their carry trades, but this week it recovered a little and is now above 111. Delayed market shocks from the subprime debacle are still dropping on investors but the market...
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The Japanese yen was rising showing that traders are dropping their carry trades, but this week it recovered a little and is now above 111. Delayed market shocks from the subprime debacle are still dropping on investors but the market is up for December as it usually does. For the week the Dow gained 1.9%. The main reason was the proposed terms by President Bush to bailout the subprime borrowers. The news sent every financial and housing stock into positive territory.
Considering all the problems the markets are holding well far better than expected. This week the FED will be the main theme. Will they cut the federal funds by 25 or by 50 basis points? Clearly the Beige Book for this week's FOMC meeting stated that the usually known problems could cause slower economic growth, but all bets are open.
The rankings of World RopInvestor have not changed at the top. Mr. Doleschall continues in the lead with gains of 796% followed by Tamás Czajner and Hanqui Guo.
This week will be all about 'how much is the FED going to cut rates?' Will it be 25 ..or 50 points? Many investors fear an American recession but the market had a big two day jump. Sentiment is shifting quickly from bearish to bullish and then back to bearish. Hungarian leading participants are having...
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This week will be all about 'how much is the FED going to cut rates?' Will it be 25 ..or 50 points? Many investors fear an American recession but the market had a big two day jump. Sentiment is shifting quickly from bearish to bullish and then back to bearish. Hungarian leading participants are having a magnificent performance.
1. György Doleschall on his account BUXII is not sleeping on the profits made so far. Always active, trading almost every day. Mr.Doleschall has a diploma of economics and has benn present on the market since 1989 (one of the veterans as we call the guys who started than). He was the CEO of Procent Investment joint stock company for 5 years and has a great experience on the leveraged markets, trading FX since 1998. His approach to the markets is special always different, always three steps ahead but not using technical analysis (more fundamentally oriented). With this approach he follows mid and long term trends (EURUSD 1-2 years, others 2-3 months). His money management is a key element his margin utilisation rarely reaches 50%, not placing stops upon technical analysis, but he does have stops, and admits when he is wrong.
So far he had trades in CHFHUF, Dow CFD index, EURAUD, EURCHF, EURHUF, EURJPY, EURNZD, EURPLN, EURTRY, EURUSD, Brent, NZDUSD, S&P CFD index, TRYJPY, USDJPY, USDTRY, all in all 395 transactions up until now. The biggest profit he had was on going long in EURUSD and EURHUF. The profit made on these two pairs brought him a profit equal to three times his starting balance.
2. Tamás Czajner is a patient type trader. Flat at the moment, closed his three EURJPY short positions one with a loss and two others with a profit, which was enough to close the strategy with a nice gain. Typical to his trading strategy building positions in the trend. He had trades in AUDJPY, Brent, CHFJPY, Dax CFD index, EURJPY, Nasdaq CFD index, Nikkei CFD index, NZDJPY, S&P CFD index, XAGUSD and XAUUSD, all in all 120 transactions so far. Not lucky in the Brent, his strategy seemed to work more in Dax index, he was long from the first days of the competition built up and held this position till the end of July. Tried the opposite direction as well, but could not profit from it. Still his biggest gain came from buying gold (XAUUSD). He started to build his position in the middle of September, in two weeks time he made a profit equal to 2,5 times his starting balance. EURJPY on the second, NZDJPY on the third place. Ready to close his positions in case market is moving against him, not using all his margins, typically around 50%. Can sit patiently in profit.
3. Avis Worldwide acc III is an interesting competitor. He is using a black box strategy actually invented by Buda-Cash. He is following the signals Buda-Cash clients get on a regular basis. He is not obliged to trade these signals, but looking at his activity he never missed any. He has three accounts, two active and one inactive. He chose to follow the signals on one of the accounts.
About the strategy: trading the majors + gold and oil, short trend following, one position in a direction. More small losses, less but big profits, all in all numbers talk for themselves. 655 trades so far, most in EURUSD, luckiest in Oil and AUDUSD, not too lucky in the Gold.
It was another week filled with fear and greed. This time fear and greed was originated from a participant that out of the blue went to first place of the WTI with gains of 975% overnight. Like every thing that seems to good to be true, this...
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It was another week filled with fear and greed. This time fear and greed was originated from a participant that out of the blue went to first place of the WTI with gains of 975% overnight. Like every thing that seems to good to be true, this was not true and was the fault of a bad tick on the end of day file. Mr Doleschall reacted immediately and took his gains to 827%, just in case...
This time of year is usually the best time of the year to be holding stocks, only this time we have a depressed sentiment and a challenging economy.
A few things need to be considered. The end of the carry trade is the first factor to be considered, where traders went long the yen and then borrowed at very low interest rates. There is a very strong correlation between the yen/euro and the SP500, that is probably the responsibility of hedge funds. Investors need to watch for this trend to be broken.
Macro themes related to the dollar are important because there is a possibility for the drop in the dollar to be near completion. If that happen commodity trades will suffer since much of the ascent in prices is apparently due to the weakness of the dollar. The price of oil needs to be followed because the price action of many energy stocks is diverging. Could this be a sign?
It was the week before Thanksgiving, and the bias is usually to the upside but instead we had big declines, big rallies which means a lot of volatility. At the end of the week the indices manage to gain despite concerns over credit meltdown and energy prices...
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It was the week before Thanksgiving, and the bias is usually to the upside but instead we had big declines, big rallies which means a lot of volatility. At the end of the week the indices manage to gain despite concerns over credit meltdown and energy prices. It was also option expiration week and that might explain the volatility.
However Investors are looking for safety and WTI participants are searching for direction. No doubt we are living very difficult times. OPEC is considering abandoning the USD under the pressure of Venezuela and Iran. The euro is again at an all time high against the greenback, bonds reached 116 and Goldman Sachs downgraded Citigroup to a sell.
The Japanese yen continued its rally in the 110 range against the USD and climbing to 161 range against the euro. The yen is the best performing currency among the 16 most actively traded.
More geopolotical events more economic releases and more earning releases will help, or not, define the future direction, but we will have also a short week because of Thanksgiving,
Mr Doleschall, maintains the lead with gains of 732 % followed by Tamás Czajner with gains of 522%.
It was a difficult week for the markets. The Dow lost 4.1% the SP 3.7% and the Nasdaq 6.5%. Could this be another dip to be bought? Anyone who has not bought dips this year has been crucified, can this dip be different...
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It was a difficult week for the markets. The Dow lost 4.1% the SP 3.7% and the Nasdaq 6.5%. Could this be another dip to be bought? Anyone who has not bought dips this year has been crucified, can this dip be different? Some seem to think that not all is well this time. A lot of write downs, a lot of rumours, like the one that suspended Barclays when it lost 9%, or the fact about Etrade that removed 55% of the market cap.
Banks like Morgan Stanley and Wachovia announced losses and expected increased in loan losses in the fourth quarter. Rating agencies have already downgraded 70 billion in subprime CDOs but further downgrades are on the horizon. Consumer confidence is not well, with oil prices near 100 USD per barril and a falling dollar. The yen continued its strong rally trading as high as 110 and the Swiss franc rallied to 1.11 the highest level versus the dollar since 1995.
Mr Doleschall increased his gains to 721% and keeps the first place of WTI. Following Doleschall is another Hungarian, Tamás Czajner with gains of 407%.
The difference between winning and losing at investing is not eradicating losses from your portfolio, it is managing losses in your portfolio. Winning, in life and in trading, is just a simple concept of getting...
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The difference between winning and losing at investing is not eradicating losses from your portfolio, it is managing losses in your portfolio. Winning, in life and in trading, is just a simple concept of getting up more times than you are knocked down. This Mr. Doleschall has been doing very well. He is more active now on his second account where he is gaining 116% and keeps the leading account with gains of 666% with not much exposure.
Those are risky times. The FED injected 41 billion USD in 3 separate open market operations last week. Not since September 11 has the FED injected so much cash in one day. Citigroup CEO resigned and it is rumored that the bank will do another 11 billion write off. The stock lost 7%. Gold is now above 800 usd and crude at almost 100 usd, 95 to be more precise.
WTI participants anticipate things are going to stay though for quite some time. The USD is at record lows, oil at record highs and gold on the way to record levels.
PetroChina is now the most valuable company in the world even if the Asian trading is starting to be volatile.
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